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Wednesday, July 24, 2002

I just read an article which said that the past week has been a weird one because the moon was in Aquarius. And I laughed because I've had a pretty good week, but then again I'm an aquarian so having the moon in Aquarius doesn't bother me at all. It's like Hello World, welcome to my life!

I guess the stock market plunging back to 1997 levels wasn't all that fun for most people. I'm afraid to think what these losses on the stock market is doing to people's retirement plans and savings. And it's not the wealthy people I worry about. The wealthy people rode out the great depression. It's the average middle income people I worry about, which is most of us. The really poor people don't care about the stock market since they probably can't afford to invest in it.

I wish I could have a conversation with my Stanford MBA boss who laughed at me when I told me that the Nasdaq couldn't sustain it's 5,000 level. He said I was crazy, that even if the market did tank, the Nasdaq would always hover around 4,000. I wonder what he thinks now that the Nasdaq has been below 2,000 for the last 1.5 years. I wonder what his explanation is for its demise.

So let's see where we are economically. Commercial real estate in San Francisco has fallen to levels not seen since 1998. Now the Dow and the Nasdaq have fallen to 1997/1998 levels. And housing costs, they're still up, but then real estate changes tend be low and always six month behing everything else. Does this mean that real estate prices in the SF Bay Area will drop to 1997/98 levels. Half the experts are saying yes and the other half is saying now.

I think real estates prices will drop, just because everything else has. Real estate cannot sustain the kinds of losses the stock market has shown us this past week.

The only good thing about the slowing economy is my that drive to work is not as crowded anymore. There are fewer people going from San Francisco to Sili Valley now. Where they've all gone, who knows?

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