On to the 2004 Presidential Election

I'm one of those guilty people, but I've used the famous 2000 election blue and red state map to talk about politics. It's a simplistic map, and therefore a simplistic way to talk about presidential politics.

Here's a different analysis of the red and blue presidential race map, Beyond Red and Blue.

Sullivan divides the country into 10 regions, and does a much more in depth analysis of how the state votes for president in the 2000 election. It's also a political road map for Bush and the other democratic candidates on how to win in 2004.

"If either Bush or the eventual Democratic nominee in 2004 can carry a sixth region, as Bill Clinton did in both 1992 and 1996, he is virtually assured to win in November. As political campaigns pull out their maps and sharpen their pencils, setting a course for November 2, 2004, they should consult our cartography - if only to determine where their opportunities lie, and where they're wasting their time. "

Sullivan explains his rationale for 10 regions in this article, Continental Divides.

"American politics always comes back to geography. One reason for this is the Electoral College, which doesn't award votes based on which candidate was favored by soccer moms or NASCAR dads. On election night, all that matters is who won where, and the 10-region model shows the long-term trends that both parties must take into account in trying to assemble an Electoral College majority."

If I think about it long enough, I bet I could come up with a similar geographical map for San Francisco and a strategy for a candidate to win the mayor's race. Gore won in the big cities, but lost in the heartland and the suburbs. Gore won the big populous states like California and New York, and lost the smaller states.

Gonzalez won in the inner city, but lost in the outer city or as we say here, "the suburbs of San Francisco". But in San Francisco, most people don't live in the inner city they live in the outer city. The neighbourhoods and districts that Gonzalez won accounted for about 30-40% of the San Francisco population.

A San Francisco mayoral candidate popular in either the inner or the outer city, would need to win enough hoods in the opposite region to win the mayor's election. Newsome won because he carried enough neighborhoods in the inner city, as well as dominating in the outer city.

Check out these San Francisco mayoral race maps, Runoff Maps.