The polls don't look good for Newsome, but thank god for blogs. I found a reputable SF political blog that said the KPIX numbers are suspect.

"KPIX Poll Not Worth the Paper It's Printed On

A couple of days ago, KPIX-TV Channel 5 released “poll” numbers that purported to show Matt Gonzalez leading Gavin Newsom by a few percentage points in the Mayor's race.

Unfortunately, the results had absolutely no bearing on reality. Indeed, this “poll” has so many problems that it's hard to know where to begin - but let's try anyway.

First - the thing wasn't done by human beings. It was done by machine. People simply responded by punching buttons on their telephones in response to automated questions. These types of polls are well known to be useless, absolutely unreliable and highly inaccurate.

More importantly, though, the KPIX poll didn't sample likely voters, or even registered voters. It simply asked participants whether or not they were likely to vote - and of course, the overwhelming majority said they would, so their response counted.

Let's put this in context: 52 percent of the folks polled in the KPIX poll said they were “certain to vote” and another 44 percent said they were “probably” going to vote, which means that, if these numbers are to be believed, the turnout for the Dec. 9 election will be somewhere around 96 percent.

That ain't gonna happen.

Even in the best years, voter turnout barely breaks 60 percent; the turnout in the general election on Nov. 4 was only 45 percent and historically, the numbers for the runoff are always lower. If more than 35 percent turn out next month, that would be a strong showing.

Yet, no one at KPIX saw fit to put the numbers in the proper context when the results were reported. Instead, KPIX and the station's partner in crime, the San Francisco Chronicle, simply reported the “poll” results as if they were statistically valid, which they clearly are not.

To say that was a disservice to the station's viewers and the paper's readers would be an understatement, at best. "

KPIX used Survey USA at the time this article was posted, and they used the same survey company again for the November 25 poll.

Thanks to FJGallagher for the info.